KKResearch研究

KK Hypothesis Database

KK 假设数据库

Falsifiable, original research hypotheses. A hypothesis that cannot be disproven is not research.

可被证伪的原创研究假设。无法被推翻的假设不是研究。

Hypothesis database假设数据库

Where the hypotheses actually stand假设目前处在什么位置

Counts are computed from the hypothesis records at build time — not written by hand.计数在构建时由假设记录现算,不是手写的。

Hypothesis假设 15 条To validate待验证 2 条Product theory产品理论 1 条In product已进入产品 1 条Theory理论 1 条
AI × HumanAI 与人类 7 条Human Communication人类沟通 3 条Human Model人类模型 3 条Multimodal Human Behavior多模态人类行为 3 条Human Intelligence Future人类智能未来 2 条Relationship Intelligence关系智能 2 条

20 hypotheses in total. A hypothesis that cannot be disproven is not research.共 20 条假设。无法被推翻的假设不是研究。

KH-001 Hypothesis假设

Personal Baseline is more suitable for a long-term Human Model than population averages. Individual behavior should be modeled relative to a person's own historical baseline, not a generic mean.

个人基线比群体平均值更适合长期 Human Model。个体行为应相对于其自身历史基线建模,而非通用均值。

Domain: Human Model · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类模型 · 阶段:假设

KH-002 To validate待验证

The speed at which an AI adapts to a user may affect trust formation, independent of absolute answer quality.

AI 适应用户的速度可能影响信任形成,与绝对回答质量无关。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: To validate

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:待验证

KH-003 Theory理论

A Human Model should jointly model Trait + State, not personality alone. Static trait profiles miss context-driven behavioral variation.

Human Model 应同时建模 Trait(特质)+ State(状态),而非仅人格。静态人格画像会遗漏由情境驱动的行为变化。

Domain: Human Model · Stage: Theory

领域:人类模型 · 阶段:理论

KH-004 In product已进入产品

Relationship prediction requires a Dyadic Model, not two independent personality profiles. Compatibility emerges from interaction, not from summing two individuals.

关系预测需要 Dyadic(二元)模型,而非两个独立的人格画像。契合度产生于互动,而非两个个体的简单相加。

Domain: Relationship Intelligence · Stage: In product

领域:关系智能 · 阶段:已进入产品

KH-005 Product theory产品理论

The core of AI personalization is not 'knowing more' but 'changing interaction strategy' in response to the user.

AI 个性化的核心不是“知道更多”,而是“根据用户改变交互策略”。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: Product theory

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:产品理论

KH-006 To validate待验证

Long-term human-AI relationship quality depends on Interaction Adaptation, not single-turn answer quality.

人与 AI 的长期关系质量取决于 Interaction Adaptation(交互适应),而非单次回答质量。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: To validate

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:待验证

KH-007 Hypothesis假设

What matters is not Absolute Pause but Personal Pause Baseline. Individual Pause Deviation = current pause − personal historical baseline. The same 2s pause means different things for a 0.5s vs 1.5s baseline person.

关键不是绝对停顿(Absolute Pause),而是个人停顿基线(Personal Pause Baseline)。个人停顿偏差 = 当前停顿 − 个人历史基线。同样的 2 秒停顿,对基线 0.5 秒与 1.5 秒的人意义完全不同。

Domain: Multimodal Human Behavior · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:多模态人类行为 · 阶段:假设

KH-008 Hypothesis假设

In long-term human-AI interaction, measured adaptation speed — the turn at which an AI first changes its interaction strategy to match a user's revealed preferences — predicts sustained trust and retention better than first-session answer quality. We predict users whose first strategy-change occurs within the first 3 turns show materially higher 30-day retention.

在长期的人机交互中,可测量的适应速度——AI 首次改变交互策略以匹配用户显现偏好的轮次——比首轮回答质量更能预测持续的信任与留存。我们预测:首次策略改变发生在前 3 轮内的用户,其 30 天留存显著更高。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:假设

KH-009 Hypothesis假设

Dyadic Communication Rhythm — the compatibility of two individuals' personal pause/turn-taking baselines (not absolute pause length) predicts felt rapport and willingness to re-engage, independent of topic content. We predict pairs whose personal inter-turn gap baselines are closely matched (deviation within a tolerance band) report higher relationship satisfaction than pairs with shared interests but mismatched rhythm. This extends KH-007 (Personal Pause Baseline) from the individual to the dyad and operationalizes KH-004 (Dyadic Model) at the behavioral-timing level.

二元沟通节奏——两个人个人停顿/话轮基线的兼容性(而非绝对停顿长度)预测感受到的融洽度与再次互动意愿,与话题内容无关。我们预测:个人话轮基线相近(偏差在容差带内)的两人,其关系满意度高于兴趣相投但节奏错配的两人。这把 KH-007(个人停顿基线)从个体层面扩展到二元层面,并在行为时序层面将 KH-004(二元模型)操作化。

Domain: Human Communication · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类沟通 · 阶段:假设

KH-010 Hypothesis假设

A portable, user-owned Human Model — a structured, evidenced 'Human Passport' carrying a person's Trait+State baseline (KH-003) and personal preferences — that travels with the individual across AI systems improves cross-app personalization and human-AI trust more than per-app isolated memory, because it preserves Personal Baseline (KH-001) and Trait+State continuity that isolated systems keep re-deriving from scratch. We predict users who carry an established model into a new AI context reach personalized, trusted interaction in fewer turns than cold-start users, and report higher calibrated trust.

一个可携带、用户拥有的 Human Model——即携带个人 Trait+State 基线(KH-003)与个人偏好的结构化、有证据支撑的“人类护照”——随个人跨越不同 AI 系统,比每个应用各自孤立的记忆更能提升跨应用个性化与人对 AI 的信任,因为它保留了孤立系统不断从零重新推导的“个人基线”(KH-001)与“Trait+State”连续性。我们预测:把已有模型带入新 AI 场景的用户,比冷启动用户用更少轮次达到个性化、可信的互动,并报告更高的校准信任。

Domain: Human Intelligence Future · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类智能未来 · 阶段:假设

KH-011 Hypothesis假设

In decoding a person's state (arousal, valence, stress) from voice, the acoustic signal must be measured relative to that person's own Prosodic Baseline — their typical pitch range, speaking rate, intensity contour, and rhythm — not a population norm. The same absolute pitch-rise or speaking-rate drop means different internal states for a naturally high-pitched vs low-pitched person, or a fast vs slow talker. We predict a personal-prosodic-baseline model beats a population-norm model on state-classification accuracy and on felt 'being understood', and that mismatched prosodic baselines between two people predict lower rapport (extending KH-009's rhythm-mismatch logic from pause timing into the acoustic domain). This operationalizes KH-003 (Trait+State) at the prosodic level and extends KH-001 (Personal Baseline) and KH-007 (Personal Pause Baseline) from timing into voice.

在从声音解码一个人的状态(唤醒度、效价、压力)时,声学信号必须相对于该人自身的“韵律基线”——其典型音高范围、语速、强度轮廓与节奏——而非群体常模来测量。同样的绝对音高升高或语速下降,对天生高音与低音的人、快语速与慢语速的人,意味着不同的内部状态。我们预测:个人韵律基线模型在状态分类准确率与“被理解感”上优于群体常模模型,且两人韵律基线错配会预测更低的融洽度(把 KH-009 的节奏错配逻辑从停顿时序扩展到声学域)。这在韵律层面将 KH-003(Trait+State)操作化,并把 KH-001(个人基线)与 KH-007(个人停顿基线)从时序扩展到声音。

Domain: Multimodal Human Behavior · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:多模态人类行为 · 阶段:假设

KH-012 Hypothesis假设

Dyadic Synchrony Compatibility — a person's felt rapport and sustainable compatibility with another is predictable from the real-time coordination between them (movement, pause/turn rhythm, prosody matching, physiological coupling), beyond shared traits or interests. This coordination should be modeled relative to each person's own baseline (extending KH-001, KH-007, KH-009), so that 'matched baseline + matched rhythm' predicts durable rapport better than trait similarity alone. We predict a matching system that aligns two users' communication rhythms and state baselines outperforms one built on static trait/interest similarity on re-engagement and reported rapport. This operationalizes KH-004 (Dyadic Model) at the behavioral-coordination level.

二元同步兼容性——一个人对他人的融洽感与可持续兼容性,可由两人之间的实时协调(动作、停顿/话轮节奏、韵律匹配、生理耦合)预测,超出共享特质或兴趣的范畴。这种协调应相对于每个人自身基线建模(扩展 KH-001、KH-007、KH-009),从而“匹配基线 + 匹配节奏”比单纯特质相似更能预测持久融洽。我们预测:让两位用户的沟通节奏与状态基线对齐的匹配系统,在再互动意愿与自报融洽度上,优于基于静态特质/兴趣相似的系统。这把 KH-004(二元模型)在行为协调层面操作化。

Domain: Relationship Intelligence · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:关系智能 · 阶段:假设

KH-013 Hypothesis假设

Conflict Repair Baseline — a dyad's recovery profile after a conversational or relational breakdown (repair latency in turns, repair-completion rate, and de-escalation style), measured relative to the dyad's own baseline rather than a population norm, predicts sustained rapport and re-engagement better than conflict frequency or static trait similarity. This operationalizes the Dyadic Model (KH-004) and Interaction Adaptation (KH-006) at the conflict level, extends Personal Baseline (KH-001) and Dyadic Rhythm (KH-009) into the repair domain, and is falsifiable: among consented KKMatch dyads, a baseline-relative repair-compatibility score should outperform conflict-frequency and trait-similarity baselines on 30-day re-engagement and reported rapport.

冲突修复基线——一对人在对话或关系破裂后的恢复特征(以轮次计的修复延迟、修复完成率与降级风格),应相对于该二元组自身基线而非群体常模来测量,其预测持久融洽与再互动的能力优于冲突频率或静态特质相似。这把“二元模型”(KH-004)与“交互适应”(KH-006)在冲突层面操作化,把“个人基线”(KH-001)与“二元节奏”(KH-009)扩展到修复域,且可被证伪:在 KKMatch 已同意的二元组中,相对基线的修复兼容性分数应在 30 天再互动与自报融洽度上优于冲突频率与特质相似基线。

Domain: Human Communication · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类沟通 · 阶段:假设

KH-014 Hypothesis假设

AI memory that preserves a user's Personal Baseline (KH-001) and Trait+State trajectory (KH-003) across sessions — structured, baseline-relative, and user-visible — predicts calibrated long-term trust and re-engagement better than flat fact-recall memory (the 'saved memories' model). Flat memory over-weights salient but unrepresentative moments and, when the user cannot see or correct what the AI 'knows', erodes calibrated trust (Nottingham 2025). We predict that, among consented users, a baseline-relative memory condition shows higher 30-day retention and higher calibrated-trust scores than a flat fact-recall condition at equal 'amount remembered', and that adding memory observability (a view/edit UI) recovers the trust lost by memory alone. This extends KH-005 (personalization = changing strategy), KH-006 (Interaction Adaptation), and KH-010 (portable Human Model) into the memory layer.

保留用户个人基线(KH-001)与Trait+State轨迹(KH-003)的 AI 记忆——结构化、相对基线、且用户可见——比扁平的事实回忆记忆(“已保存记忆”模型)更能预测校准后的长期信任与再互动。扁平记忆会过度加权显著但非代表性的瞬间;当用户无法看见或纠正 AI“知道什么”时,会侵蚀校准信任(Nottingham 2025)。我们预测:在已同意用户中,相对基线的记忆条件在“记住量相等”下,其 30 天留存与校准信任分数均高于扁平事实回忆条件,且加入记忆可观测性(查看/编辑界面)能挽回“仅记忆”损失的信任。这把 KH-005(个性化=改变策略)、KH-006(交互适应)与 KH-010(可携带 Human Model)扩展到记忆层。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:假设

KH-015 Hypothesis假设

A Dynamic Human Model — a user's stable Trait component plus a continuously-updated, baseline-relative State trajectory — predicts a person's next in-session behavior, expressed need, and felt rapport better than a static Trait-only profile. We predict that, among consented KKMatch users, models that use State-deviation-from-Personal-Baseline features (KH-001) outperform Trait-only features on next-turn engagement and on same-session rapport, especially in the first ~5 sessions before Trait estimates stabilize. This operationalizes KH-003 (Trait+State) at the longitudinal level and extends KH-001 (Personal Baseline) from cross-session memory into real-time state tracking.

动态人类模型——用户稳定的特质分量 + 持续更新、相对基线的状态轨迹——比静态的“仅特质”画像更能预测一个人下一轮会话内行为、表达出的需求与被感受到的融洽度。我们预测:在 KKMatch 已同意用户中,使用“相对个人基线的状态偏差”特征(KH-001)的模型,在下一轮互动参与度与同会话融洽度上优于仅特质模型,尤其是在特质估计尚未稳定前的约前 5 轮会话。这在纵向层面将 KH-003(Trait+State)操作化,并把 KH-001(个人基线)从跨会话记忆扩展到实时状态追踪。

Domain: Human Model · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类模型 · 阶段:假设

KH-016 Hypothesis假设

An embodied AI companion that receives a portable, user-owned Human Model — carrying the user's Personal Baseline (KH-001) and Trait+State trajectory (KH-003) — and adapts its interaction strategy to the user's live state (KH-005 / KH-015) builds calibrated trust and sustains engagement better than a disembodied, cold-start agent. We predict that, among consented users, an embodied companion initialized with an established baseline-relative Human Model (a) reaches calibrated trust and shows a larger loneliness-reduction effect size in fewer sessions than a cold-start companion, and (b) the benefit of physical embodiment is amplified when the agent adapts to the user's state rather than delivering generic responses. This extends KH-010 (portable Human Passport) and KH-005 (personalization = changing strategy) into the embodied-agent domain, and is falsifiable: across n>=200 consented users per arm, the embodied + portable-model arm should beat the cold-start arm on sessions-to-calibrated-trust and loneliness reduction, and the embodiment advantage should be larger under state-adaptive (vs generic) responses.

一个接收可携带、用户拥有的 Human Model 的具身 AI 伴侣——携带用户个人基线(KH-001)与 Trait+State 轨迹(KH-003)——并据用户实时状态调整交互策略(KH-005 / KH-015),比无实体的冷启动代理更能建立校准的信任并维持互动。我们预测:在已同意用户中,用已建立的相对基线 Human Model 初始化的具身伴侣(a)比冷启动伴侣用更少轮次达到校准信任并展现更大孤独缓解效应量,且(b)当代理适应用户状态而非给出通用回应时,身体具身的好处被放大。这把 KH-010(可携带人类护照)与 KH-005(个性化=改变策略)扩展到具身代理域,且可被证伪:各臂 n>=200 已同意用户下,“具身+可携带模型”臂应在“达到校准信任所需轮次”与孤独缓解上优于冷启动臂,且具身优势在“状态自适应(相对通用)回应”下应更大。

Domain: Human Intelligence Future · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类智能未来 · 阶段:假设

KH-017 Hypothesis假设

Listening Responsiveness Baseline — how 'heard' a person feels with another (or with an AI) is driven more by the listener's responsive-listening baseline — undivided attention, acknowledgement, and curiosity (asking, not prematurely advising) — measured relative to that listener's own baseline, than by trait agreeableness or a self-reported 'good listener' identity. We predict that, among consented KKMatch dyads, a baseline-relative listening-responsiveness score predicts felt 'being heard' and 30-day re-engagement better than a trait agreeableness score, and that pairs whose listening-responsiveness baselines are closely matched report higher mutual rapport than pairs with similar traits but mismatched listening styles (extending KH-004's Dyadic Model and KH-009's rhythm-match logic into the reception domain, and KH-013's baseline-relative repair logic into everyday reception). For AI, an AI companion that enacts responsive listening (reflect + ask + defer advice, per KH-005) makes consented users feel heard and sustains engagement better than an advice-first agent — consistent with Yin et al. (2024) but closing the 'AI label' penalty via transparency. Falsifiable: across n>=200 consented users per arm, the responsive-listening AI arm should beat the advice-first arm on 'felt heard' and retention; and among human dyads, baseline-relative listening-responsiveness should beat trait agreeableness on felt-heard and re-engagement.

倾听回应性基线——一个人与另一个人(或与 AI)相处时“被听到”的感受,更多由倾听者回应性倾听基线(全神贯注、确认、以及好奇地追问而非过早给建议)驱动,且应相对于该倾听者自身基线测量,而非由其特质性宜人性或自报的“好听众”身份驱动。我们预测:在 KKMatch 已同意的二元组中,相对基线的倾听回应性分数在预测“被听到感”与 30 天再互动上优于特质宜人性分数;且两人倾听回应性基线相近的对子,其相互融洽度高于特质相似但倾听风格错配的对子(把 KH-004 的二元模型与 KH-009 的节奏匹配逻辑扩展到“接收”域,并把 KH-013 的相对基线修复逻辑扩展到日常接收)。对 AI 而言,一个践行回应性倾听(反映+追问+延后建议,按 KH-005)的 AI 伴侣,比“给建议优先”的代理更让已同意用户感到被听到并维持互动——与 Yin 等人(2024)一致,但通过透明度消除“AI 标签”的折损。可被证伪:各臂 n>=200 已同意用户下,“回应性倾听 AI”臂在“被听到感”与留存上应优于“给建议优先”臂;且在人类二元组中,相对基线的倾听回应性应在“被听到感”与再互动上优于特质宜人性。

Domain: Human Communication · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:人类沟通 · 阶段:假设

KH-018 Hypothesis假设

Baseline-Anchored Personalization resists Sycophancy. An AI that personalizes against a user's own measured Personal Baseline (KH-001) and exposes its adaptation (KH-014) produces calibrated agreement — validating correct beliefs, not affirming false ones — better than a flat personalization that optimizes for user approval. Sycophancy is the failure mode of approval-optimized personalization (Cheng et al. 2025; Sharma et al. 2024). We predict that, among consented users, a baseline-anchored personalization condition shows fewer unwarranted affirmations on false-belief probes at equal or higher 'felt understood' scores than a flat approval-optimized condition, and that surfacing the user's own baseline back to them (observability, KH-014) further reduces sycophancy without reducing trust. This operationalizes KH-005 (personalization = changing strategy) as calibrated disagreement and extends KH-010 (portable Human Passport) and KH-014 (observability) into the agreement layer.

基线锚定个性化抗谄媚。一个相对用户自身已测量的个人基线(KH-001)做个性化、并暴露其适应(KH-014)的 AI,比“为用户认可而优化”的扁平个性化更能产生校准的认同——验证正确信念,而非肯定错误信念。谄媚是“认可优化型”个性化的失败模式(Cheng 等,2025;Sharma 等,2024)。我们预测:在已同意用户中,基线锚定个性化条件在“错误信念探针上的不当肯定更少”且“被理解感”相等或更高,优于扁平认可优化条件;且把用户自身基线回显给用户(可观测性,KH-014)进一步降低谄媚而不降低信任。这把 KH-005(个性化=改变策略)操作化为“校准的异议”,并把 KH-010(可携带人类护照)与 KH-014(可观测性)扩展到认同层。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:假设

KH-019 Hypothesis假设

Facial & Body Expression Baseline — a person's state (valence, arousal, discomfort, engagement) decoded from face and body must be measured relative to that person's own expression baseline — their typical neutral/resting posture, natural expression range, and idiosyncratic motion patterns — not a population norm. The same absolute smile-magnitude, eyebrow-raise, or fidget means different internal states for a person whose resting face already looks like a smile (Nizamoğlu & Dobs, 2024) versus a flat-faced person, or a naturally expressive versus still mover. We predict a personal-expression-baseline model beats a population-norm model on state-decoding accuracy and on felt 'being understood', and that mismatched expression baselines between two people predict lower rapport (extending KH-009's rhythm-mismatch and KH-011's prosodic-mismatch logic from timing/voice into the visual domain). This operationalizes KH-003 (Trait+State) at the visual-expression level and extends KH-001 (Personal Baseline), KH-007 (Personal Pause Baseline) and KH-011 (Prosodic Baseline) from timing and voice into face and body.

面部与身体表情基线——从人脸与身体解码一个人的状态(效价、唤醒、不适、投入)时,其表情必须相对于该人自身的“表情基线”来测量——即其典型的自然/静息姿态、自然的表情幅度范围与特异性的动作模式——而非群体常模。同样的绝对微笑幅度、挑眉或坐立不安,对“静息脸本来就带着笑意”(Nizamoğlu & Dobs,2024)的人与“面无表情”的人、对天生表情丰富与安静不动的人,意味着不同的内部状态。我们预测:个人表情基线模型在状态解码准确率与“被理解感”上优于群体常模模型,且两人表情基线错配会预测更低的融洽度(把 KH-009 的节奏错配与 KH-011 的韵律错配逻辑从时序/声音扩展到视觉域)。这在视觉表情层面将 KH-003(Trait+State)操作化,并把 KH-001(个人基线)、KH-007(个人停顿基线)与 KH-011(韵律基线)从时序与声音扩展到脸与身体。

Domain: Multimodal Human Behavior · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:多模态人类行为 · 阶段:假设

KH-020 Hypothesis假设

A Deference-Calibrated AI -- one that models the user's calibration discernment (when the user should vs. should not defer to the AI on a given task) relative to the user's Personal Baseline (KH-001), and proactively signals its own uncertainty and invites challenge on tasks where the human is stronger or private context dominates -- builds more calibrated long-term trust and better joint outcomes than an always-confident or a uniformly-deferential AI, at equal model capability. We predict that, among consented users, a deference-calibrated condition (uncertainty signaling + invite-override when the user holds private information) outperforms an always-confident and a uniformly-deferential condition on joint-task accuracy and on a calibrated-trust scale. This extends KH-002 (trust formation), KH-005 (personalization = changing strategy -> here, changing deference posture per task), KH-014 (observability/transparency), and KH-018 (calibrated agreement), and is falsifiable.

一个退让被校准的 AI——它相对于用户个人基线(KH-001)建模用户的“校准判断力”(在给定任务上该不该让渡给 AI),并在用户更强或私有情境占主导的任务上主动暴露自身不确定性、邀请质疑——在模型能力相等时,比一个永远自信或一味退让的 AI 更能建立校准的长期信任与更好的联合结果。我们预测:在已同意用户中,“退让被校准”条件(暴露不确定性 + 在用户握有私有信息时邀请推翻)在联合任务准确率与校准信任量表上,优于“永远自信”与“一味退让”两个条件。这扩展 KH-002(信任形成)、KH-005(个性化=改变策略→此处即按任务改变退让姿态)、KH-014(可观测性/透明)与 KH-018(校准的认同),且可被证伪。

Domain: AI × Human · Stage: Hypothesis

领域:AI 与人类 · 阶段:假设